Bayes network
altenator broken, fanbelt broken ->
battery dead -> battery flat -> car won’t start
-battery meter, battery age
light, oil light, gas gague
no oil, no gas, fuel line blocked, starter broken
Binary events
Probability
Simple bayes networks
Conditional independence
Bayes networks
D-seperation
Parameter counts
Bayes networks -> diagnostics, prediction, machine learning
Finance, Google, Robotics
particle filters, HMM, MDP + POMDPs, KALMAN filters …
Probabilities is certainty in AI
P(head) = 1/2, P(Tail) = 1/2
P(h, h, h) = 1/8, P(h) = 1/2
P(x1=x2=x3=x4)=0.125,
P({x1,x2,x3,x4} contains >= 3 h) = 5 / 16
