Correlation And Causation

Deep insight
correlation, causation

Sick
In hospital 40, died 4 10%
home 8000, died 20 0.25%

Chances of dying in hospital are 40 times larger than at home

hospital died
sick 36 4 11.1%
health 4 0 0%

At home
sick 40 20 50%
healthy 7960 20 0.251%

P(exactly one head)
–
P(first flip is only head)
= 4

def test(coins, flips):
	f=FlipPredictor(coins)
	quesses=[]
	for flip in flips:
		f.update(flip)
		quesses.append(f.Pheads())
	return guesses

print test([0.5,0.4,0.3],'HHTH')

from __future__ import division
class FlipPredictor(object):
	def __init__(self,coins):
		self.coins=coins
		n=len(coins)
		self.probs=[1/n]*n
	def Pheads(self):

	def update(self,result):