Dependent things
outcome first is dependent
smart 0.5, dumb 0.5
P(P@S) = 0.001
P(P@S/SMART) = 0.002
P(P@S/DUMB) = 0.000
P(cancer)=0.1
P(¬cancer)=0.9
Dependant is conditional probability
P(positive|cancer)= 0.9
P(negative|cancer)= 0.1
P(positive|¬cancer)=0.2
p(negative|¬cancer)=0.8
Cancer Test P()
Y, P, 0.09(0.1*0.9)
Y, N, 0.01(0.1*0.1)
N, P, 0.18(0.9*0.2)
N, N, 0.72(0.9*0.8)
P(Positive Result)=0.27
P(c) -> P(¬c)
P(P|c) -> P(n|c)
P(P|¬c) -> P(n|¬c)
P(p) = P(p|c)・P(c)+P(p|¬c)・p(¬c)
Total probability
P(test|disease)
P(test)= P(test|disease)*p(disease) + P(test|¬disease)*P(¬disease)
