P(D1) P(D1=sunny)=0.9
P(D2=sunny | D1=sunny) = 0.8
P(D2 = rainy|D1=sunny) = 0.2
P(D2 = sunny|D1 = rainy) = 0.6
P(D2 = rainy|D1 = rainy) = 0.4
Bayes Rule
P(A|B) = P(B|A)* P(A)/ P(B)
Posterior = Likelihood * prior / marginal likekihood
P(c|+) = P(+|c)*P(c)/ P(+) = 0.9 * 0.01/ 0.9*0.01 + 0.2*0.99
bays rule
A: not observable P(A)
B: observable P(B|A), P(B|¬A)
Diagnostic reasoning: P(A|B), P(B|¬A)
