Pr{ x > t}

Pr {x > t} < E(x)/t X -> |x – μ|

Chebyshev’s inequality
Pr{|X-μ|>= t} <= ω^2/t^2 X1,...,Xn Confidence bounds and data f(x)= -1/β e ^ -x/β adding confidence to β Pr{|x-β*|ε< 2e^^2nε^2} β = 1451.5 seconds n = 3200

exp_diffs = []
for t in timeUntilNext:
	exp_diffs.append(t-1/fitParams[0])
pandas.Series(exp_diffs).hist(bins=50)
pandas.Series(exp_diffs).describe()

import math
exp_diffs = []
abs_diffs = []
for t in timeUnitNext:
	exp_diffs.append(t-1/fitParams[0])
	abs_diffs.append(math.fabs(t-1/fitParams[0]))

pandas.Series(abs_diffs).hist()
pandas.Series(abs_diffs).describe()